TELEIOS — Monday Market Commentary |
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Taylor Manning & Guy Charles
Financial Planning / Wealth Management
TELEIOS Financial LLC
Taylor: 469-807-3559 · Guy: 469-382-9707
info@teleiosfinancial.com
www.TeleiosFinancial.com |
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“The big money is not in the buying and the selling, but in the waiting.” — Charlie Munger |
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June 15, 2026
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Happy Monday, folks. Every week we put this together so you’ve got a straight-talking read on what happened in the markets — and what it means for your money. No products. No pitches. Just plain talk. If somebody forwarded this your way and you’d like it every Monday, shoot us an email at info@teleiosfinancial.com — just write “Market Commentary – [Your Name].” |
Front Porch Three Things Worth Talking About This Week
| 1 |
The war is over. Trump announced a peace deal with Iran Sunday night. Oil is falling. Gas prices are heading down. Late Sunday, President Trump posted on Truth Social: “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” The U.S. and Iran signed a peace agreement ending nearly four months of war. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Oil dropped more than 4% on the news, with WTI falling to around $80 a barrel — its lowest since March. The national gas average is already at $4.07 and dropping. This is the biggest economic news in months. Every price you pay — at the pump, at the grocery store, on your mortgage — is connected to this moment. (NBC News, CBS News, OilPrice.com) |
| 2 |
SpaceX went public Friday. First day up 19%. Valued at over $2 trillion. Biggest IPO in history. SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share Thursday night and opened Friday morning at $150. By end of day it closed at $160.95, up 19% — the largest first-day dollar volume in Nasdaq history. The company is now valued above $2 trillion, making it worth more than Tesla. The ticker is SPCX on the Nasdaq. Over 360 million shares traded on the first day alone. Elon Musk’s rocket company — which also runs Starlink internet and recently acquired the AI company xAI — went public at a valuation that would have been unthinkable five years ago. Whether you bought in or not, this will be talked about at your next dinner party for a while. (NPR, Fortune, CNBC) |
| 3 |
Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed meeting tomorrow. It could move your mortgage rate. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22nd and chairs his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, June 16–17. Nobody expects a rate change — 97% of traders are betting on a hold at 3.50–3.75%. But the Iran peace deal changes the math in a big way. If oil keeps falling, inflation cools fast, and the Fed suddenly has room to cut. Warsh’s press conference Wednesday afternoon will be the most watched event in finance this week. What he says about the path forward could move mortgage rates before the month is out. (FXStreet, Kiplinger, Indmoney) |
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Market Scoreboard
Friday close, June 12, 2026 · SpaceX IPO · Iran deal announced Sunday
2026 Year-to-Date — How Far We’ve Come
| Russell 2000 |
+14.9% Leader of the pack in 2026 |
Source: AP, Yahoo Finance — June 12, 2026 close |
| Index |
Close 6/12 |
Week |
YTD |
| S&P 500 |
7,431.46 |
+0.64% |
+8.1% |
| Dow Jones |
51,202.26 |
+0.66% |
+5.5% |
| Nasdaq |
25,888.84 |
+0.70% |
+10.1% |
| Russell 2000 |
2,943.99 |
+0.36% |
+14.9% |
Worth Noting
All four indexes closed up on the week — quietly, while most of the headlines were about SpaceX and the Iran talks. The S&P 500 is back up to +8.1% for the year. The Russell 2000 is quietly leading everything at +14.9%. And this morning, futures are up sharply on the Iran peace deal announcement. Today could be a very green Monday. (Yahoo Finance, TheStreet) |
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Interest Rate Dashboard
30-Year Mortgage Rate — 12-Month Trend
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6.84%
Yr ago |
6.15%
Jan ’26 |
6.81%
Mar ’26 |
6.23%
Apr 23 |
6.48%
Jun 4 |
6.52% +
Jun 11 |
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Rate went down — good for borrowers |
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Rate went up — costs borrowers more |
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Historical reference |
Rates ticked up to 6.52% as the CPI came in hot. But the Iran deal this weekend changes everything — watch for rates to fall fast. (Freddie Mac) |
| Rate |
Current |
Prior Week |
| 10-Year Treasury |
4.54% + |
4.44% |
| 2-Year Treasury |
3.85% - |
3.87% |
| 30-Year Treasury |
5.00% + |
4.978% |
| 30-Year Mortgage |
6.52% + |
6.48% |
| 15-Year Mortgage |
5.84% + |
5.79% |
Plain English
Mortgage rates ticked up to 6.52% after the May CPI came in hot at 4.2% and pushed bond yields higher. But here’s the thing — that data was collected before the Iran peace deal was announced Sunday night. If oil drops toward $70 as expected, inflation cools fast, bond yields fall, and mortgage rates follow. The Freddie Mac number next week could look very different. People who have been waiting to buy a home should watch this closely. (Freddie Mac June 11, 2026; The Mortgage Reports) |
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The Kitchen Table Index
The market that matters most is the one at your grocery store.
| Item |
This Month |
4 Weeks Ago |
Trend |
| Eggs (dozen) |
$2.32 |
$2.35 |
- Better |
| Ground Beef (lb) |
$6.73 |
$6.70 |
+ Up slightly |
| White Bread (lb) |
$1.83 |
$1.81 |
+ Up a touch |
| Whole Milk (gal) |
$4.05 |
$4.07 |
- Slight relief |
Source: BLS avg retail price data — This Month = May 2026 · 4 Weeks Ago = April 2026 · Next update July 10
At the Pump Week over week
Texas Fuel: Today vs. One Year Ago
| Regular Gas |
| Yr ago: $2.74 |
Now: $3.55 +30% |
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| Diesel |
| Yr ago: $3.10 |
Now: $4.82 +55% |
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Gray = year ago · Colored = today |
| Fuel |
National Now |
Texas Now |
TX Year Ago |
| Regular Gas |
$4.07 |
$3.55 |
$2.74 +30% |
| Diesel |
$4.86 |
$4.82 |
$3.10 +55% |
Sources: AAA Fuel Gauge Report (June 15, 2026), CBS News, GasBuddy
Plain English
Texas gas is down to $3.55 this morning — the lowest since before the war started. The national average hit $4.07, down 46 cents in a month. And that was all before the Iran deal got announced Sunday night. With WTI crude falling toward $80 a barrel, analysts expect the national average to drop below $4 within days and continue lower as the Strait reopens. Every truck driver, farmer, and family with a commute is about to catch a break. (AAA, CBS News, ABC News, June 15, 2026) |
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The Back 40 Report
| Commodity |
Price |
Trend |
Why It Matters |
| WTI Crude Oil |
~$80 |
- Falling fast |
Fuel & input costs |
| Gold (spot) |
~$4,239 |
- Easing |
Confidence gauge |
| Silver (spot) |
~$33 |
Steady |
Industrial demand |
| Corn |
$4.68 |
- Easing |
Feed & planting acres |
| Live Cattle |
$254.20 |
Strong |
Rancher revenue |
| Feeder Cattle |
$370.50 |
Strong |
Replacement cost |
Plain English
Oil is the story right now. WTI is at $80 and falling after the Iran peace deal, down from highs above $100. That is a 20% drop from the peak — real relief for every farmer and rancher watching diesel costs. Cattle prices remain strong above $254 cash trade, which is excellent money for Texas producers. Corn easing is good news for feed costs heading into summer. Gold dropped as fear left the room — which is actually a healthy sign. (OilPrice.com, Brownfield Ag News, Yahoo Finance) |
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What the Numbers Are Saying
The Numbers That Matter Most This Week
WTI Crude Oil
~$80
Down from $100+ highs — Iran deal signed |
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SpaceX (SPCX) Close $160.95 Up 19% on first day — largest IPO in history |
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S&P 500 YTD +8.1% Still positive through war, inflation & uncertainty |
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Sources: OilPrice.com, CNBC, Yahoo Finance — June 12-15, 2026 |
The Iran deal changes everything. Let’s talk about what actually happens next. When the Strait of Hormuz reopens and Iranian oil starts flowing again, the supply shock that drove gas prices up 40% reverses. WTI crude is already at $80 and the Strait hasn’t even reopened yet. Analysts expect oil to fall toward $70–75 as shipping normalizes. That means gas prices below $3.50 in Texas before summer is out. It means groceries stop climbing. It means the Fed can finally breathe. It means Warsh has room to cut rates sooner than anyone thought possible two weeks ago. One deal. Everything downstream. (NBC News, OilPrice.com, CBS News)
SpaceX went public Friday and made history doing it. Elon Musk’s rocket company priced its IPO at $135, opened at $150, and closed at $160.95 — up 19% on its first day. The company is now worth more than $2 trillion, making it bigger than Tesla. Over 360 million shares traded on day one, setting Nasdaq records. The company is not yet profitable — it lost $4.3 billion in Q1 — but investors are betting on Starlink, the AI infrastructure buildout through xAI, and the long-term vision of Musk’s space empire. Whether you bought shares or not, the fact that you can now is a big deal. SPCX is on the Nasdaq. (NPR, Fortune, CNBC)
May inflation came in at 4.2% — hot, but almost entirely driven by energy. The May CPI report dropped Wednesday: 4.2% annual inflation, in line with expectations. Sounds bad. But here’s the important part: strip out energy and core inflation was only 2.9%. Gasoline alone drove 60% of the monthly increase. Now that oil is falling fast because of the Iran deal, those energy prices reverse — and June inflation could drop sharply. The Fed knows this. Warsh knows this. The question this week is whether he signals that reality in his press conference Wednesday. (BLS, CNBC, EY)
The stock market held up all year. People who stayed the course are up 8%. The S&P 500 finished the week at 7,431 — up 8.1% for the year. The Russell 2000 is up 14.9%. This happened through four months of war, oil above $100, inflation at a three-year high, a brand new Fed Chair, and a Nasdaq selloff that felt like the floor was falling out. And the market is still up. The people who sold in February and March locked in losses and watched the recovery happen without them. Time in the market beats timing the market. Every single time. (Yahoo Finance, TheStreet, Advisor Perspectives)
Gold & Silver
Gold is at around $4,239/oz this morning — up slightly on the Iran peace news as investors react to what lower oil means for the global economy. Silver is holding near $33/oz. Here’s the plain English: when fear goes away, gold usually eases. But this is a complicated moment. Peace in the Middle East is good for the economy, which is good for stocks, which pulls some money out of gold. But lower inflation also means the Fed might cut rates sooner — and lower rates tend to push gold up. These two forces are fighting each other right now. We’re watching — not chasing. (Yahoo Finance, Barron’s, Trading Economics) |
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What We’re Watching This Week
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Iran peace deal signing ceremony — Friday in Switzerland The formal signing takes place Friday in Switzerland with Pakistan and Qatar as mediators. Once signed and the Strait clears, watch oil prices immediately. Every dime oil drops is a dime off your gas bill and a step toward lower inflation. This is the most consequential event for your wallet in 2026. (NBC News, OilPrice.com) |
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Warsh’s first FOMC meeting — Tuesday & Wednesday, June 16–17 Rates will almost certainly stay put at 3.50–3.75%. But with oil now falling and the Iran war over, Warsh’s Wednesday press conference could signal that rate cuts are back on the table for late 2026. His exact words will move markets. Every mortgage rate in America reacts to what he says. (FXStreet, Kiplinger) |
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SpaceX (SPCX) — watching its first full week of trading After closing at $160.95 on Friday, SpaceX opens its first full week as a public company today. Already trading above $177 in pre-market on the Iran deal news. The company will be volatile — it’s not profitable yet. But the Starlink business is real, the AI ambitions are real, and the retail investor interest is enormous. (Investing.com, CNBC) |
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Gas prices — will the national average break below $4 this week? Already at $4.07 with oil falling. With the Iran deal announced and the Strait set to reopen, many analysts expect the national average to fall below $4 by the end of this week. Texas could see $3.25–$3.40 by early July. That is real money in real pockets. Watch the AAA daily tracker this week. (CBS News, Trading Economics) |
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Bottom Line
Four months of war. Oil above $100. Gas over $4. Inflation at a three-year high. A brand new Fed Chair. And through all of it — every single week — the stock market kept climbing. The S&P 500 is up 8.1% on the year. The Russell 2000 is up nearly 15%. SpaceX went public and became one of the most valuable companies in the world overnight. And Sunday night, the war ended.
The folks who panicked in February and March locked in their losses and missed every bit of this. The folks who stayed put are sitting in the shade right now watching oil fall, gas prices drop, and their portfolios recover. That is not luck. That is discipline. That is what we mean when we say pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. Stay the course. Don’t get greedy. Let time do its work.
Stay steady. Stay disciplined. Keep your boots on the ground. |
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Commentary and education only · No investment advice · No product recommendations
Sources: NBC News, CBS News, ABC News, OilPrice.com, NPR, Fortune, CNBC, BLS, Freddie Mac, AAA, TheStreet, Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics, Brownfield Ag News, FXStreet, Kiplinger, EY, Advisor Perspectives
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