TELEIOS - Monday Market Commentary - August 17, 2026

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

— John Maynard Keynes

Warren Buffett’s successor just made a $17 billion bet on Google. Here’s why that’s a big deal.

When the most famous investing company in the world makes a move, people pay attention. Berkshire Hathaway dropped $17 billion more into Alphabet — Google’s parent company — during the second quarter of 2026, nearly doubling its stake and making Alphabet the third-largest holding in its $299 billion portfolio. CEO Greg Abel, who took over from Warren Buffett at the start of the year, agreed in June to make a $10 billion private placement investment directly with Alphabet, then bought another $7 billion on the open market. Alphabet now sits behind only Apple and American Express in Berkshire’s book. Berkshire also added homebuilders including DR Horton as a new position, and boosted Lennar — a signal that Abel believes the housing market has a better future ahead than current mortgage rates suggest. When the smartest long-term money in America bets big on Google and homebuilders in the same quarter, that’s worth paying attention to. (CNBC, Yahoo Finance, AP)

The S&P 500 just hit its 27th record high of 2026. Corporate America is making serious money.

The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Thursday — its 27th record close of 2026 — as both CPI and PPI inflation data for July came in cooler than expected. But the bigger story is earnings season. Of the 455 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 87% beat earnings estimates and 68% exceeded revenue estimates — and S&P 500 firms are on pace to report roughly 50% year-over-year earnings growth in the second quarter. That is a staggering number. Half again more profit than a year ago, across 500 of the biggest companies in America. During an active war. The VIX fear gauge hit new 2026 lows below 14.4 this week — the calmest the market has felt all year. (Edward Jones, Schwab, Bloomberg)

Inflation cooled in July. The September rate hike just got a lot less likely.

The July CPI came in at 3.4% annual inflation — down from 3.5% in June and below what many feared given oil’s spike above $100 in late July. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in at just 2.5% — matching a rate last seen in January. Grocery chains and big-box retailers actively rolled back prices this summer, helping keep food inflation in check. After the report, the probability of a September rate hike dropped to about 34%, down from around 55% the prior week, according to CME FedWatch. Here’s the plain English: the Fed is watching. The war is still making inflation messy. But the underlying trend — stripping out energy — is actually pretty good. Moody’s chief economist said inflation could get close to the Fed’s 2% goal by this time next year if the war doesn’t escalate further. (CBS News, The Hill, Edward Jones)

2026 Year-to-Date — How Far We’ve Come

Source: AP, Yahoo Finance — August 17, 2026 close

Worth Noting

The S&P 500 hit its 27th record close of 2026 on Thursday before a soft Friday pulled it just slightly back. The S&P is now up 14% for the year, the Nasdaq up 15%, and the Russell 2000 still up 21.6%. The VIX fear gauge closed the week at a 2026 low of 14.9 — the calmest reading since before the war started in February. A calm VIX and record highs at the same time is about as good a market environment as you can ask for. (Schwab, Yahoo Finance)

30-Year Mortgage Rate — 12-Month Trend

The 30-year mortgage rate ticked back to 6.67% per Freddie Mac — a slight improvement from the prior week’s 6.69% as cooler inflation data eased bond yields. Still elevated, but the trend may be turning. (Freddie Mac, August 14, 2026)

Plain English

Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate ticked down to 6.67% from 6.69% — a small but welcome improvement as cooler CPI data pulled bond yields lower. Freddie Mac’s chief economist noted that listing prices are now modestly below year-ago levels and for-sale inventory has been improving — meaning the supply side of the housing market is quietly getting better even as rates stay elevated. The big event for mortgage rates this week: the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole conference August 27–29. If Warsh signals that rate hikes are off the table, mortgage rates could drop noticeably before September. (Freddie Mac, World Property Journal)

Texas Fuel: Today vs. One Year Ago

Gray = year ago   ·   Colored = today

Plain English

AAA Texas confirmed gas is holding at $3.63 in the state — elevated crude oil in the low-$80 range is preventing the usual August seasonal dip. Nationally we’re right at $4.07. Here’s some good news buried in the July CPI report: energy prices actually fell 1.5% in July and average daily gas prices in July were about 10 cents cheaper than in June. The headline chaos of oil hitting $100+ late in July obscures the fact that the month overall was slightly better at the pump than June. If the Iran situation stays contained, analysts expect gas to ease through August. (AAA Texas, CBS News, BLS)

Plain English

Oil is holding in the low-$80s as the Strait of Hormuz remains partially disrupted and a Saturday report surfaced of another ship strike near the strait. Cattle is firm above $257 — solid money for Texas ranchers heading into fall. Feeder cattle near $375 is still near record highs. Corn ticked up to $4.31 on export demand and ethanol usage. Gold is climbing again toward $4,418, supported by the weak jobs and retail sales data reducing rate-hike expectations. The big wildcard for everything on this list remains the same: what happens at the Strait of Hormuz. (Brownfield Ag News, Trading Economics)

The Numbers That Matter Most This Week

Sources: Edward Jones, Bloomberg, CBS News — August 12-17, 2026

Gold & Silver

Gold is climbing toward $4,418/oz this morning — near its highest level in months — as weak retail sales and soft jobs data reduce rate-hike expectations, making gold more attractive. Silver is holding near $59/oz. The cooler July CPI reading, with core inflation at just 2.5%, eased pressure on the Fed and gave gold room to run. Two forces are pushing gold up right now: lower rate-hike odds AND continued geopolitical uncertainty from the Strait of Hormuz. Until either rates clearly rise or peace clearly arrives, gold has tailwinds from both directions. We’re watching the Jackson Hole speech carefully. (Trading Economics, TheStreet)

Fed Jackson Hole Conference — August 27–29, Warsh speaks Thursday August 28

Schwab flagged this as the key event that could shake up the market’s current calm. Warsh’s speech Thursday at Jackson Hole is the most important Fed communication until the September 15–16 meeting. Whatever tone he takes will move mortgage rates immediately. (Schwab, CNBC)

Iran ship strike report — watching the Strait this week

A report surfaced Saturday of another ship strike near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil ticked up on the news. Any escalation sends oil back toward $90 and gas above $4.25. Any confirmed diplomatic progress sends it toward $70. The Strait is still the single most important 21 miles on the planet for your wallet. (CNBC, Reuters)

Housing data this week — Building permits and existing home sales

With Berkshire making a big bet on homebuilders and mortgage rates ticking down slightly, this week’s housing reports take on extra meaning. Freddie Mac noted for-sale inventory has been improving — if buyers are responding to better supply, we could see a quiet summer housing recovery beginning. (Freddie Mac, World Property Journal)

Ground beef crossed $7 a pound at the grocery store

We flagged the structural beef shortage for weeks — the smallest U.S. cattle herd since 1951, the Mexico border closure over the screwworm parasite, and a three-year rebuild timeline. This week ground beef officially crossed $7 a pound. It’s not going back down quickly. The USDA expects beef prices to stay elevated through at least 2028. (BLS, USDA)

Beyond the Commentary