TELEIOS - Monday Market Commentary - September 14, 2026

“September is the cruelest month for investors. But the people who stay planted are the ones who harvest in Q4.”

— TELEIOS Financial  ·  Based on data from Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management (an Osaic company) & Capital Group

September is historically the worst month for stocks. Here's the stat that will make you feel a whole lot better about it.

Yes, September has a bad reputation on Wall Street — and this year it's earning it. Oil above $100, missiles flying, the Fed meeting tomorrow, and mortgage rates at a one-year high. But here's what your normal advisor probably isn't telling you. According to data from Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management and Capital Group going back to 1950: Q4 is historically the best quarter of the year for the S&P 500. The same market that gets roughed up in September tends to roar back October through December. And here's the number that stopped us in our tracks: the average return in the year following a midterm election is +15.4% — nearly double the average of any other year going back to 1950. Midterms are November 2026. We are in that window right now. Volatility in September isn't a reason to panic. It's a reason to stay planted. The history books say the reward comes right after the rough patch. (Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, an Osaic company; Capital Group)

Remember that scary July jobs report showing 23,000 job losses? Turns out the economy was actually adding jobs the whole time.

This is the kind of story that gets buried under the big headlines but deserves a full explanation. Back on August 1st, the BLS reported that the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July — a scary number that sent rate-hike fears soaring and markets tumbling. When the August jobs report came out on September 4th, the BLS quietly revised July's number from -23,000 losses to +21,000 gains — a swing of 44,000 jobs. June was also revised up by 11,000, to +31,000. Combined, the two months were 55,000 higher than originally reported. Here's the plain English: the economy never actually lost jobs in July. The original read was wrong. And August itself came in at 162,000 new jobs — three times the 53,000 expected. The labor market, as Randall Faulk of Faulk Financial in Houston put it after reviewing the data, "remains very healthy." The July report was an outlier. The underlying trend is solid. (BLS, CNBC, Faulk Financial)

The Oman peace talks were called off Sunday. Saudi Arabia's backup pipeline got blown up. Oil hit $108. Here's the chain reaction.

Sunday morning brought two pieces of news that sent oil surging. First, Oman's Foreign Minister announced that planned talks between Iran and Gulf states over the Strait of Hormuz had been postponed indefinitely — dashing the best diplomatic hope in weeks. Then Saudi Arabia announced it was shutting down its critical East-West pipeline, which carries 7 million barrels a day from eastern Saudi Arabia to Red Sea ports, after drone attacks damaged key pumping facilities. This pipeline was Saudi Arabia's backup route to bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely. Both bypass routes — the Strait and the pipeline — are now disrupted simultaneously. Brent crude jumped to $108 a barrel — a four-month high — and WTI is above $103 this morning. Gas prices are heading back up. And the Fed meets tomorrow with an 87% chance of hiking rates, partly because oil keeps pushing inflation higher. Watch oil futures this week as your real-time war gauge. (CBS News, Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics)

2026 Year-to-Date — How Far We’ve Come

Source: AP, Yahoo Finance — September 14, 2026 close

Worth Noting

Four straight days of losses were snapped by a strong Friday rally — the Dow added 509 points, the S&P gained 0.9%, all 11 sectors finished higher. But the weekly totals were still negative across the board as oil surged above $100 on war escalation. The S&P 500 is still up 10.6% for 2026. Randall Faulk of Faulk Financial notes the advance-decline line for the S&P 600 reached all-time highs in mid-August — historically a sign that a major market top is at least 4 months away. That points to January 2027 at the earliest. (Trading Economics, Faulk Financial, CNBC)

30-Year Mortgage Rate — 12-Month Trend

Mortgage rates hit a one-year high of 6.88% today — driven by oil above $103, CPI at 3.4%, and a Fed meeting tomorrow with an 87% chance of a rate hike. A $400,000 mortgage now costs $2,629 a month in principal and interest. (Freddie Mac, MortgageDaily.com)

Plain English

Mortgage rates hit a one-year high today at 6.88% — up from 6.35% a year ago and climbing fast. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday near 4.96%, its highest since before the 2008 financial crisis. Here's the direct connection: oil above $103 raises inflation fears, which push Treasury yields higher, which drag mortgage rates up with them. Every $10 per barrel rise in oil eventually adds about 10–15 basis points to mortgage rates. The Fed meets tomorrow — an 87% chance of a 0.25% hike per CME FedWatch. If they hike, expect the 30-year rate to approach 7% by the end of the week. (Freddie Mac, MortgageDaily.com, Money.com)

Texas Fuel: Today vs. One Year Ago

Gray = year ago   ·   Colored = today

Plain English

Gas is at $4.24 nationally and $3.94 in Texas today — and heading higher after oil surged above $103 this morning on the Oman peace talk collapse and Saudi pipeline shutdown. Diesel is at $5.95 nationally, approaching last week's record. Here's the math that matters: when both the Strait of Hormuz AND Saudi Arabia's East-West backup pipeline are disrupted at the same time, global oil supply gets squeezed from both directions simultaneously. That hasn't happened before in this war. Every truck, every farm, every delivery in America feels it within 10 days. (AAA, CNBC, September 14, 2026)

Plain English

Oil is the story this morning — above $103 and rising after both the Strait of Hormuz peace talks collapsed AND Saudi Arabia's backup East-West pipeline was shut down by drone attacks. That's a double disruption to global oil supply that hasn't happened at the same time before in this conflict. Every farmer watching diesel costs needs to circle this week. Cattle is choppy, still working through the import deal uncertainty and Mexico border gradual reopening. Feeder cattle has pulled back from the highs near $374 down to around $360. Gold is climbing toward $4,680 as safe-haven demand rises with war escalation. Corn is firming at $4.35. (Brownfield Ag News, Trading Economics, CNBC)

The Numbers That Matter Most This Week

Sources: BLS, Ladenburg Thalmann/Capital Group, CME FedWatch — September 11-14, 2026

Gold & Silver

Gold is climbing toward $4,680/oz today as the double disruption — Strait of Hormuz and Saudi pipeline — sends oil surging and amplifies safe-haven demand. Silver is near $61/oz. Here's the interesting dynamic: gold is rising even as rate-hike odds hit 87%, which normally suppresses it. The war premium is now large enough to override the rate pressure. If the Fed hikes tomorrow AND signals it's done for now, gold could pop further. If Warsh sounds hawkish about more hikes, gold may ease. The Fed press conference tomorrow at 2:30 p.m. ET is the single most watched moment of the week for precious metals. (Trading Economics, Reuters)

Fed rate decision — tomorrow, September 15, announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET

87% probability of a 0.25% hike per CME FedWatch. The rate decision itself is almost certain — the press conference at 2:30 p.m. is what matters. Does Warsh signal one-and-done, or hint at more hikes? One sentence from him moves mortgage rates. Every homebuyer in America is watching at 2:30 tomorrow. (CME FedWatch, CNBC)

Saudi Arabia East-West pipeline — when does it reopen?

Officials say repairs could take 3–5 weeks. The pipeline carries 7 million barrels a day — Saudi Arabia's only bypass route around the Strait of Hormuz. If it stays offline through October, oil stays elevated, gas stays above $4, and inflation stays sticky. Watch Aramco announcements daily for repair updates. (CBS News, OilPrice.com)

Oman peace talks — postponed indefinitely, will they reschedule?

The Oman foreign minister postponed talks between Iran and Gulf states over the Strait "in the interest of consensus" — diplomatic code for "we're not ready." Any rescheduling announcement would send oil down 5%+ immediately. Any statement that talks are off permanently sends oil toward $115. Watch for news out of Muscat this week. (CBS News, Yahoo Finance)

Russell 2000 down 2.8% last week — small caps feeling the pressure

Small-cap stocks took the hardest hit last week, with the Russell 2000 falling 2.8% even as the S&P held up relatively better. Small businesses are more sensitive to higher borrowing costs — a rate hike tomorrow hits them first and hardest. Watch whether the Russell recovers post-Fed or continues to lag. (Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance)

Beyond the Commentary