TELEIOS - Monday Market Commentary - October 5, 2026

“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.”

— Benjamin Franklin

The 10-year Treasury hit a 24-year high this week. Then Friday happened.

Midweek, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level in 24 years on inflation and government-borrowing worries. Then Friday’s September jobs report landed and changed the story: the economy added just 29,000 jobs, far below the 84,000 expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. July and August got revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs on top of that. Yields dropped fast on the news and closed the week at 5.18% — almost exactly where they started. The real shift is in what the Fed is expected to do next: traders now see roughly an 82% chance the Fed holds rates steady on October 28, a sharp reversal from the hike odds we told you about just last week. Weak jobs news is bad for workers, but right now it’s the thing standing between you and another rate hike. (BLS, Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance)

Diesel just hit a fresh national record. The G7 responded this weekend by opening the vault.

National diesel hit a fresh record at $6.34 a gallon this week, driven by continued disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries that have squeezed the global diesel supply from two directions at once. In response, the G7 announced this weekend it’s releasing 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency strategic reserves — a rare coordinated move to flood the market with supply. It already worked some: WTI crude dropped to around $89 a barrel to start the week. Whether that relief trickles down to the diesel pump — and from there to your grocery bill, since nearly everything in Texas arrives by truck — is the thing to watch over the next few weeks. (Trading Economics, Reuters, AAA)

It's a tale of two markets right now — and the Dow is not the one winning.

The Nasdaq just overtook the Russell 2000 as 2026’s best-performing major index, up 17.0% for the year on continued AI and tech strength. Meanwhile the Dow fell 1.3% this week and has dropped to just 6.5% for the year — down hard from 9.69% a week ago — as its more old-economy mix of industrial and healthcare names keeps dragging it lower. Same stock market, two very different years, depending on what you own. It’s a reminder that “the market” headline number can hide a lot depending on which index is doing the talking. (Wall Street Journal, Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics)

2026 Year-to-Date — How Far We’ve Come

Source: AP, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet — October 2, 2026 close

Worth Noting

A brutal September jobs report (just 29,000 jobs added, unemployment up to 4.2%) sent a jolt through markets Friday, but stocks mostly shrugged it off since weak jobs news now reads as "the Fed probably won't hike." The Nasdaq led with a 1.19% Friday pop, while the Dow actually gained on the day despite its rough week overall. The S&P 500 is up 12.8% for 2026, and the Nasdaq has taken over the top spot among all four indexes at +17.0%. (Yahoo Finance, Wall Street Journal)

30-Year Mortgage Rate — 12-Month Trend

Freddie Mac confirmed 7.28% as of October 1 — up sharply from 7.03% and the highest since November 2023. The 10-year Treasury spiking to a 24-year high mid-week was the driver, even though Friday's weak jobs report pulled the yield back down after Freddie Mac's survey window closed. (Freddie Mac, Fox Business)

Plain English

Freddie Mac confirmed the 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.28% on October 1 — its highest reading since November 2023, up from 7.03% the week before. The 15-year fixed climbed to 6.60%. Blame the 10-year Treasury, which hit a 24-year high mid-week on inflation and borrowing worries before Friday's surprisingly weak jobs report pulled it back down to 5.18% — too late to show up in this week's mortgage survey. On a $300,000 mortgage, the move from 7.03% to 7.28% adds roughly $50 a month. If yields hold near Friday's lower level, next week's mortgage reading could actually ease back. (Freddie Mac, Fox Business)

Texas Fuel: Today vs. One Year Ago

Gray = year ago   ·   Colored = today

Plain English

National diesel hit a fresh record this week at $6.34 a gallon, squeezed from two directions — continued Strait of Hormuz disruption and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. The G7 responded this weekend by releasing 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves, which already pulled WTI down to around $89. Texas is actually a bit better off: $3.94 for regular (nearly flat) and $5.79 for diesel (down from $5.88). If the reserve release holds, expect national diesel to start easing from this record in the next week or two. (AAA, GasBuddy, Trading Economics)

Plain English

Good week for ranchers, for a change. Corn eased to $4.98 a bushel on an improving crop outlook, which pulled feed costs down and let cattle futures rally — live cattle climbed to around $221/cwt and feeder cattle to about $331. Oil dropped to around $89 after the G7's emergency reserve release, and gold kept drifting lower, to around $4,205, as the strong dollar and high Treasury yields continue to pull money out of the metal; silver eased alongside it to about $61.50. (Trading Economics, Brownfield Ag News, Kitco)

The Numbers That Matter Most This Week

Sources: BLS, Trading Economics, CME FedWatch — September 29-October 5, 2026

Gold & Silver

Gold slid further to around $4,205/oz this week, continuing its pullback as the dollar stays strong and Treasury yields hover near two-decade highs — both tend to pull money out of gold. Silver eased alongside it to around $61.50/oz. With the G7's reserve release easing the oil-driven war-premium story, gold has lost one of its biggest tailwinds from recent months. Watch the dollar and the 10-year yield — if either turns, gold could find its footing again. (Kitco, Trading Economics)

October 28 Fed meeting — odds just flipped to a hold

Markets now see roughly 82% odds the Fed holds rates steady, a sharp reversal from last week. But the ISM Prices Paid jump to 77.9 is a reminder that inflation pressure hasn't gone away — watch for any data between now and the 28th that could flip these odds again. (CME FedWatch, Trading Economics)

G7 reserve release — does it actually bring diesel down at the pump?

The 100-million-barrel release already pulled WTI down to around $89. Whether that relief reaches the diesel pump — which just hit a national record — is the next thing to watch, since crude and diesel don't always move together on the same timeline. (Trading Economics, AAA)

Shenzhen summit details — the November Trump-Xi meeting starts taking shape

With the state dinner behind them, both sides are expected to start firming up the Shenzhen agenda in the coming weeks — especially the AI safety discussion, which could matter as much to markets as anything on tariffs. No new developments yet, but worth watching as November approaches. (AP, Reuters)

Midterm elections — November 4, 2026 — exactly four weeks away

We told you a few weeks back that the year after a midterm has historically been strong for the S&P 500. We're now inside the home stretch before voters head to the polls — expect volatility to pick up as campaigns hit their final push. (Advisor Perspectives, Trading Economics)

Beyond the Commentary