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TELEIOS — Monday Market Commentary
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Taylor Manning & Guy Charles
Financial Planning / Wealth Management
TELEIOS Financial LLC
Taylor: 469-807-3559 · Guy: 469-382-9707
info@teleiosfinancial.com
www.TeleiosFinancial.com
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“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
— Warren Buffett
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October 12, 2026
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October 12, 2026
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Happy Monday, folks. Every week we put this together so you’ve got a straight-talking read on what happened in the markets — and what it means for your money. No products. No pitches. Just plain talk.
If somebody forwarded this your way and you’d like it every Monday, shoot us an email at info@teleiosfinancial.com — just write “Market Commentary – [Your Name].”
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Did You Know We Have a Podcast?
“5 Medicare Mistakes That Can Cost Retirees Money”
with guest Mike Surrano, Your Insurance Coach — this past weekend on Wealth Realized
Taylor and Guy host Wealth Realized — “Life, Money & A Little Texas Truth,” a local radio show on Celina City Limits now on Apple Podcasts and Spotify too. With Medicare open enrollment underway, this one walks through the real, avoidable mistakes retirees make with Part A, B, D, Medigap and Advantage — and how to steer clear of them.
Thanks also to our Wealth Realized partners — Papa Rob’s Coffee, POW Ponder on Weather, and R&R Pest Control — for helping make the show possible.
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Front Porch
Three Things Worth Talking About This Week
| 1 |
The 10-year Treasury hit a fresh 52-week high. Mortgage rates just logged their seventh straight weekly increase.
The 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 5.32% midweek — a fresh 52-week high — on heavy government debt issuance and crude oil climbing back above $93 a barrel, before settling at 5.24% to end the week. Freddie Mac confirmed the 30-year mortgage averaged 7.40% as of October 8, up from 7.28% the week before and the seventh consecutive week rates have risen. The 15-year climbed to 6.73%, its highest since May 2024. If you’re house-hunting or refinancing, this run higher is the thing to watch heading into year-end. (Trading Economics, Freddie Mac, Fox Business)
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| 2 |
USDA just surprised everybody with a bumper corn crop. Ranchers are loving it.
USDA’s October crop report, released Friday, raised its average corn yield forecast to 181.2 bushels an acre — well above what analysts expected — and lifted total production by roughly 234 million bushels. Corn futures dropped about 20 cents on the news to settle near $4.80 a bushel, an eight-week low. Cheaper corn means cheaper cattle feed, and ranchers felt it immediately: live cattle futures jumped to $227/cwt and feeder cattle to $342/cwt, both up sharply on the week. A rough stretch for corn growers is turning into a good one for cattlemen. (Brownfield Ag News, USDA AMS, Trading Economics)
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| 3 |
The job market just did something it hasn’t done since 1969. Consumers don’t believe it.
Initial jobless claims came in at 197,000 for the week ending October 3 — the fourth straight week under 200,000, the first streak like that since 1969. By that measure, the labor market has rarely looked tighter. And yet the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index cratered to 46.3 in October, down from 48.1 and one of the weakest readings on record, with people now expecting 4.7% inflation over the next year. The data says the job market is historically solid. The mood on Main Street says otherwise. That gap is worth paying attention to. (TheStreet, Trading Economics)
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Market Scoreboard
Friday close, October 9, 2026 · 10-yr Treasury hit a fresh 52-wk high of 5.32%, settled at 5.24% · Jobless claims under 200K for a 4th straight week — first time since 1969 · Nasdaq still 2026’s leader
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2026 Year-to-Date — How Far We’ve Come
| Nasdaq |
+17.70% Leader of the pack in 2026
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Source: AP, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet — October 9, 2026 close
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| Index |
Close 10/9 |
Week |
YTD |
| S&P 500 |
7,811.54 |
+1.2% |
+14.10% |
| Dow Jones |
51,654.95 |
+0.9% |
+7.50% |
| Nasdaq |
27,366.17 |
+0.6% |
+17.70% |
| Russell 2000 |
2,806.98 |
-0.9% |
+13.10% |
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Worth Noting
A quieter week after the prior Friday’s jobs-report jolt — the S&P 500 notched fresh record highs and gained 1.2% on the week. Under the hood it was a broad rally, not just mega-cap tech: the equal-weighted S&P outperformed the cap-weighted index, and 9 of 11 sectors advanced, led by Utilities, Consumer Staples and Energy. The S&P 500 is now up 14.1% for 2026, and the Nasdaq holds the top spot among all four indexes at +17.7%. (Yahoo Finance, Wall Street Journal, TheStreet)
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Interest Rate Dashboard
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30-Year Mortgage Rate — 12-Month Trend
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6.26%
Yr ago
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6.15%
Jan ’26
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6.23%
Apr ’26
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6.43%
Jul 2
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7.28% ?
Oct 1
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7.40% ?
Oct 8
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Rate went down — good for borrowers |
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Rate went up — costs borrowers more |
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Historical reference |
Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.40% on October 8 — the seventh straight weekly increase and the highest since mid-2023. The 10-year Treasury pushing to a fresh 52-week high of 5.32% before settling at 5.24% was the driver, as heavy debt issuance and oil back above $93 kept pressure on long yields. (Freddie Mac, Trading Economics, Fox Business)
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| Rate |
Current |
Prior Week |
| 10-Year Treasury |
5.24% ? |
5.18% |
| 2-Year Treasury |
4.79% |
4.78% |
| 30-Year Treasury |
5.60% |
5.61% |
| 30-Year Mortgage |
7.40% ? |
7.28% |
| 15-Year Mortgage |
6.73% ? |
6.60% |
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Plain English
Freddie Mac’s October 8 survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.40%, up from 7.28% the week before — the seventh straight weekly increase and the highest reading since mid-2023. The 15-year fixed climbed to 6.73%, its highest since May 2024. Blame the 10-year Treasury again: it touched a fresh 52-week high of 5.32% intraweek on heavy debt issuance and crude back above $93, before settling Friday at 5.24%. On a $300,000 mortgage, the move from 7.28% to 7.40% adds roughly $25 a month on top of what was already a historically expensive borrowing environment. (Freddie Mac, Trading Economics, Fox Business)
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The Kitchen Table Index
The market that matters most is the one at your grocery store.
| Item |
This Month |
4 Weeks Ago |
Trend |
| Eggs (dozen) |
$2.19 |
$2.20 |
? Still easing |
| Ground Beef (lb) |
$7.08 |
$7.06 |
? Structural shortage continues |
| White Bread (lb) |
$1.92 |
$1.91 |
? Diesel costs flowing through |
| Whole Milk (gal) |
$3.90 |
$3.91 |
? Slight dip |
Source: BLS avg retail price data — This Month = August 2026 · 4 Weeks Ago = July 2026 · Next update October 14
At the Pump Week over week
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Texas Fuel: Today vs. One Year Ago
| Regular Gas |
| Yr ago: $2.74 |
Now: $3.82 +39% |
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| Diesel |
| Yr ago: $3.71 |
Now: $5.67 +53% |
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Gray = year ago · Colored = today
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| Fuel |
National Now |
Texas Now |
TX Year Ago |
| Regular Gas |
$4.36 |
$3.82 |
$2.74 +39% |
| Diesel |
$6.28 |
$5.67 |
$3.71 +53% |
Sources: AAA Fuel Gauge Report (October 11, 2026), GasBuddy
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Plain English
National gas and diesel both eased slightly this week — regular to $4.36 and diesel to $6.28 — as the G7’s emergency reserve release from two weeks ago keeps working through the system, even with WTI crude back above $93 on fresh Middle East supply worries. Texas stayed cheaper than the nation on both: $3.82 for regular and $5.67 for diesel, both down from the week before. Texas drivers are still paying about 39% more for gas and 53% more for diesel than a year ago, but both gaps narrowed from last week. (AAA, Trading Economics)
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The Back 40 Report
| Commodity |
Price |
Trend |
Why It Matters |
| WTI Crude Oil |
~$93 |
+ Debt issuance, Middle East supply worries |
Fuel & input costs |
| Gold (spot) |
~$4,169 |
? Further pullback despite Friday bounce |
Confidence gauge |
| Silver (spot) |
~$60.59 |
? Hit 2-month low before Friday recovery |
Industrial demand |
| Corn |
$4.80 |
? 8-week low on bumper USDA crop estimate |
Feed & planting acres |
| Live Cattle |
~$227 |
+ Rallying as feed costs drop |
Rancher revenue |
| Feeder Cattle |
~$342 |
? Rallying with live cattle |
Replacement cost |
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Plain English
Another good week for ranchers. USDA’s October crop report (released Thursday) surprised everybody by raising the corn yield estimate to 181.2 bushels per acre, adding 234 million bushels to the national crop — corn tumbled to an 8-week low near $4.80 a bushel. Cheaper feed sent cattle futures higher still: live cattle climbed to about $227/cwt and feeder cattle to roughly $342. Oil moved the other way, with WTI back up near $93 on heavy Treasury debt issuance and renewed Middle East supply worries. Gold kept drifting lower to around $4,169 and silver to about $60.59 — both bounced some on Friday but remain well off their highs. (Trading Economics, Brownfield Ag News, USDA AMS, Kitco)
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What the Numbers Are Saying
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The Numbers That Matter Most This Week
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Fed Hold Odds
84%
October 28 meeting — hike odds have faded further, down near 16%
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ISM Services PMI
54.9%
September reading, cooled from August but still growing
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ISM Manufacturing
54.5%
Factories still expanding — but Prices Paid jumped to 77.9
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Sources: BLS, Trading Economics, CME FedWatch — as of October 10, 2026
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Factories are busier. They’re also paying a lot more for what they need to make things. The ISM Manufacturing index’s most recent reading came in at 54.5% for September — a reading above 50 means the sector is growing, so that’s genuinely good news. The catch is the Prices Paid index, which measures what factories pay for raw materials, jumped to 77.9, one of the highest readings in months. Translation: manufacturers are busy and optimistic, but their input costs are climbing fast, and that cost tends to show up later in what you pay for the finished product. (Trading Economics)
The bigger slice of the economy is still growing — just not quite as fast. The ISM Services index, which covers the retail, healthcare, finance and other service businesses that make up roughly three-quarters of the U.S. economy, came in at 54.9% for September, down from August and a touch below the 55.2% economists expected. Anything over 50 still means growth, and new orders held up fine — the softer spot was the employment component, which slipped toward the breakeven line. Put together with the manufacturing numbers above, the economy is still expanding on both the goods and services side, just losing a bit of momentum as higher borrowing costs keep working their way through. (Trading Economics)
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Gold & Silver
Gold slid further to around $4,169/oz this week, extending its pullback as the dollar stays strong and Treasury yields hover near multi-decade highs — both tend to pull money out of gold — though it did bounce some on Friday. Silver eased alongside it, touching a 2-month low before also recovering some ground Friday to around $60.59/oz. Watch the dollar and the 10-year yield — if either turns, gold could find its footing again. (Kitco, Trading Economics)
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What We’re Watching This Week
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October 28 Fed meeting — hold odds keep climbing
Markets now put the odds of a hold at roughly 84%, up again from last week, as hike odds keep fading toward 16%. Watch for any Fed speakers between now and the 28th — a hawkish surprise could flip these odds fast. (CME FedWatch)
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Q3 earnings season kicks off — big banks report this week
JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup all report Tuesday morning, with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley following Wednesday. Bank earnings are usually the first real read on how the economy is actually holding up, not just what the surveys say. (TheStreet, Yahoo Finance)
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Shenzhen summit details — the November Trump-Xi meeting starts taking shape
With the state dinner behind them, both sides are expected to start firming up the Shenzhen agenda in the coming weeks — especially the AI safety discussion, which could matter as much to markets as anything on tariffs. No new developments yet, but worth watching as November approaches. (AP, Reuters)
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Midterm elections — November 3, 2026 — three weeks away
We told you a few weeks back that the year after a midterm has historically been strong for the S&P 500. We’re now inside the final three weeks before voters head to the polls — expect volatility to pick up as campaigns hit their final push. (Advisor Perspectives, Trading Economics)
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Bottom Line
The 10-year Treasury punched up to a fresh 52-week high of 5.32% this week before settling at 5.24%, and mortgage rates logged their seventh straight weekly increase — 7.40% on a 30-year fixed. Jobless claims stayed under 200,000 for a fourth straight week, something that hasn’t happened since 1969, but consumers don’t feel it — confidence cratered to its lowest reading in over a year. And ranchers had a great week: a surprise bumper corn crop from USDA knocked feed costs down and sent cattle prices higher.
Here’s what the data says through all the noise: the Fed is now 84% likely to hold rates steady on October 28, and that odds number keeps climbing. The S&P 500 is up 14.1% for the year and just notched fresh record highs, and the rally broadened out well beyond the mega-cap names. Big bank earnings kick off this week, the midterms are three weeks out, and the economy is still growing on both the goods and services side — just losing a little steam. Watch October 28. Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered.
Stay steady. Stay disciplined. Keep your boots on the ground.
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Commentary and education only · No investment advice · No product recommendations
Sources: AP, Reuters, Fox Business, TheStreet, Wall Street Journal, Yahoo Finance, Edward Jones, Freddie Mac, AAA, GasBuddy, BLS, Trading Economics, Brownfield Ag News, USDA AMS, Kitco, Advisor Perspectives, CME FedWatch, Federal Reserve
Do what is Right. Love People. Work Humbly.
— Your TELEIOS Team
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