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“The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.”
— Baron Rothschild
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June 1, 2026
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Happy Monday, folks. Every week we put this together so you’ve got a straight-talking read on what happened in the markets — and what it means for your money. No products. No pitches. Just plain talk.
If somebody forwarded this your way and you’d like it every Monday, shoot us an email at info@teleiosfinancial.com — just write “Market Commentary – [Your Name].”
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Front Porch
Three Things Worth Talking About This Week
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This morning Iran said it’s closing the Strait completely and walking away from talks. Oil is up nearly 8% right now.
Last week oil fell 20% from its 2026 highs on hopes that a 60-day ceasefire MOU was “mostly agreed.” Then this morning, Iranian state media announced Tehran will completely close the Strait and halt all U.S. talks after Israeli attacks in Lebanon. WTI crude jumped 7.8% to $94.20 before 10am. This is the story that defines everything else — your gas price, your grocery bill, your mortgage rate, your portfolio. When it moves, everything moves. (Reuters, Fox Business)
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Nine straight winning weeks for the S&P 500. May was the best month of 2026.
In a shortened four-day trading week due to Memorial Day, the Dow closed above 51,000 for the first time, the S&P 500 hit 7,580, and the Nasdaq crossed 26,972. That’s nine straight winning weeks for the S&P — a streak not seen since 2017. For the month of May, the Nasdaq gained over 8%, the S&P added 5%, and the Dow rose 3%. The best month of the year so far. All of this while Iran kept the Strait closed and inflation ran at 3.8%. The wall of worry keeps getting higher and the market keeps climbing it. (Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics, TheStreet)
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Dell and Snowflake both surged 40% in one week. The AI rally has a new set of legs.
Dell Technologies jumped over 40% in a single week after its AI server business drove guidance that blew past estimates. Snowflake — a cloud data company — also surged 40% after its own blowout earnings. Both were the best performers in the S&P 500 this week. Separately, Oracle rose over 10% after announcing a new AI investment round that included Anthropic. The AI trade is not narrowing — it’s widening. More companies, more sectors, more money. The Nasdaq is now up over 19% on the year. (TheStreet, Trading Economics, Fox Business)
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Market Scoreboard
Friday close, June 1, 2026 · Dow hits new record · 8 straight winning weeks
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2026 Year-to-Date — How Far We’ve Come
| Russell 2000 |
+17.3% Leader of the pack in 2026
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Source: AP, Yahoo Finance — May 29, 2026 close
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| Index |
Close 5/29 |
Week |
YTD |
| S&P 500 |
7,580.06 |
+0.37% |
+10.3% |
| Dow Jones |
51,032.46 |
+0.58% |
+6.0% |
| Nasdaq |
26,972.62 |
+0.19% |
+17.3% |
| Russell 2000 |
2,919.34 |
+0.91% |
+17.3% |
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Worth Noting
The Dow hit a new all-time record close of 51,032.46 on Friday. The S&P 500 has now posted eight straight winning weeks — its longest win streak since 2017. The Russell 2000 is up 14.5% on the year and quietly leading everything. Memorial Day weekend news of a Strait of Hormuz reopening framework is sending futures even higher this morning. (Yahoo Finance, TheStreet)
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Interest Rate Dashboard
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30-Year Mortgage Rate — 12-Month Trend
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6.81%
Yr ago
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6.15%
Jan ’26
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6.81%
Mar ’26
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6.23%
Apr 23
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6.51%
May 21
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6.36%
May 28
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Rate went down — good for borrowers |
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Rate went up — costs borrowers more |
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Historical reference |
Rates are creeping higher. 6.53% now. But here’s the thing — the 10-year Treasury yield actually dipped to 4.44% this week as oil pulled back on ceasefire hopes. Rates haven’t fully caught up yet. If the Iran situation stabilizes, mortgage rates could follow yields down. Watch oil. (Freddie Mac)
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| Rate |
Current |
Prior Week |
| 10-Year Treasury |
4.56% |
4.56% |
| 2-Year Treasury |
3.95% |
3.95% |
| 30-Year Treasury |
5.08% |
5.08% |
| 30-Year Mortgage |
6.36% |
6.51% |
| 15-Year Mortgage |
5.71% |
5.85% |
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Plain English
Mortgage rates ticked up to 6.53% — nearly unchanged from last week. The 10-year Treasury actually dropped to 4.44% as oil fell and inflation fears cooled temporarily. Rates haven’t caught up to that good news yet, but they should. The direction of travel here depends almost entirely on what happens with the Strait of Hormuz. Good news on Iran means lower yields, lower mortgage rates, more buyers off the sidelines. This morning’s Iran escalation is a step backward. (Freddie Mac May 28, 2026; The Mortgage Reports)
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The Kitchen Table Index
The market that matters most is the one at your grocery store.
| Item |
This Month |
4 Weeks Ago |
Trend |
| Eggs (dozen) |
$2.32 |
$2.35 |
- Better |
| Ground Beef (lb) |
$6.73 |
$6.70 |
+ Up slightly |
| White Bread (lb) |
$1.83 |
$1.81 |
+ Up a touch |
| Whole Milk (gal) |
$4.05 |
$4.07 |
- Slight relief |
Source: BLS avg retail price data — This Month = April 2026 · 4 Weeks Ago = March 2026 · Next update June 10
At the Pump Week over week
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Texas Fuel: Today vs. One Year Ago
| Regular Gas |
| Yr ago: $2.74 |
Now: $3.92 +43% |
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| Diesel |
| Yr ago: $3.08 |
Now: $4.69 +52% |
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Gray = year ago · Colored = today
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| Fuel |
National Now |
Texas Now |
TX Year Ago |
| Regular Gas |
$4.426 |
$3.92 |
$2.74 +43% |
| Diesel |
$5.571 |
$4.69 |
$3.08 +52% |
Sources: AAA Fuel Gauge Report (June 1, 2026), GasBuddy, Fox4 DFW
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Plain English
The national average hit $4.426 this morning per AAA — little relief for drivers heading into Memorial Day weekend. Texas gas is at $3.975, slightly below the national average thanks to Gulf Coast refinery access. Texas diesel at $5.62 is 83% higher than a year ago. Every truck that delivers groceries, every tractor in a field, every construction crew driving to a job site — they’re all paying that price. It flows through to everything. (AAA, June 1, 2026; Fox Business)
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The Back 40 Report
| Commodity |
Price |
Trend |
Why It Matters |
| WTI Crude Oil |
~$87–94 |
+ Rising |
Fuel & input costs |
| Gold (spot) |
~$4,569 |
+ Rising |
Confidence gauge |
| Silver (spot) |
~$77 |
Steady |
Industrial demand |
| Corn (May) |
$4.70 |
Steady |
Feed & planting acres |
| Live Cattle (Jun) |
$252.10 |
Firm |
Rancher revenue |
| Feeder Cattle (May) |
$367.80 |
Firm |
Replacement cost |
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Plain English
Oil had its best week in months, falling nearly 20% from 2026 highs on ceasefire hopes. Then this morning Iran escalated again and WTI jumped back toward $94. That kind of volatility is brutal for farmers and ranchers trying to plan input costs. Cattle prices are holding firm above $252 — strong. Gold climbed back as fear returned. The big picture: until the Strait has commercial traffic moving freely, every commodity tied to energy will stay this volatile. (Brownfield Ag News, Trading Economics, Reuters)
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What the Numbers Are Saying
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Despite Everything — The Bright Spots
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S&P 500 YTD
+10.3%
Best month of 2026
9 straight winning weeks
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S&P Win Streak
9 Weeks
S&P 500 winning streak
longest since 2017
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AI Rally Widens
Dell +40%
AI server boom lifted Dell
& Snowflake +40% in one week
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Sources: Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics, TheStreet — May 29, 2026
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Nine straight winning weeks. May was the best month of 2026. Let that sink in. With all the noise — 3.8% inflation, a closed Strait, oil above $100, a new Fed Chair, rising mortgage rates — the stock market went up for nine straight weeks and just finished its best month of the year. The Nasdaq gained over 8% in May alone. The S&P 500 added 5%. The Dow climbed 3%. These are not small numbers. This is the market telling you that corporate America is healthy, AI spending is real, and the underlying economy has more resilience than the headlines suggest. The people who sold in February and March watched this happen from the sidelines. (Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics, TheStreet)
Dell jumped 40% in one week. Snowflake jumped 40%. The AI rally is spreading. This is not just Nvidia anymore. Dell Technologies — a company that sells servers and PCs — surged over 40% after its AI server business drove earnings guidance that blew past expectations. Snowflake, a cloud data platform, also jumped 40% on its own blowout earnings. Oracle rose 10% on an AI investment round. These are not speculative startups. These are established American companies delivering real results because the AI buildout is creating demand across the entire tech stack. The Nasdaq is up over 13% for the year and the rally is widening. (TheStreet, Trading Economics, Fox Business)
Iran escalated again this morning — here’s what it means for your money right now. Iranian state media announced this morning that Tehran will completely close the Strait of Hormuz and halt all talks with the U.S. after Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Oil jumped 7.8% before 10am. The ceasefire MOU that was “mostly agreed” last week is now in serious doubt. Here’s the honest picture: this has happened before. The market has absorbed every escalation and kept climbing. But this one is particularly important because Saudi Aramco’s CEO warned last week that if the Strait stays closed past mid-June, oil market normalization won’t happen until 2027. That means higher gas, higher inflation, and higher rates for much longer than anyone wants. (Reuters, Fox Business)
Warsh’s first FOMC meeting is June 16–17 — two weeks away. Last week, as oil fell and the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.44%, there was brief optimism that Warsh might signal a more dovish tone at his first meeting. This morning’s Iran escalation changes that calculus again. The Fed cannot cut rates with oil surging and inflation running hot. Warsh’s first press conference will be one of the most watched in years. Whatever he says will move markets, mortgage rates, and the whole direction of the economy for the second half of 2026. Two weeks. Get ready. (Wall Street Journal, Schwab, The Mortgage Reports)
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Gold & Silver
Gold climbed back to around $4,569/oz by Friday as oil pulled back but geopolitical uncertainty kept demand for safe havens steady. Silver is around $77/oz. This morning gold moved higher on the Iran news — exactly as expected. Here’s the pattern: fear goes up, gold goes up. Fear eases, gold eases. Right now fear is back up. Gold has been one of the best performing assets of 2026 and that’s unlikely to change until there’s a durable peace deal. We’re watching — not chasing. (Yahoo Finance, Barron’s, Trading Economics)
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What We’re Watching This Week
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Iran’s latest escalation — will the ceasefire survive?
Iran announced this morning it will completely close the Strait and walk away from talks after Israeli strikes in Lebanon. That sent oil up 7.8% before 10am. Trump posted “just sit back and relax, it will all work out.” The ceasefire MOU that was nearly signed last week is now in serious doubt. Every hour of news today matters. This is the most important variable in your gas bill, your grocery bill, and your portfolio. (Reuters, Fox Business)
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AI Rally Widens — expected around June 12
Kevin Warsh chairs his first Federal Reserve meeting in two weeks. This is when the Fed publishes updated economic projections for the first time since Powell left. If the Iran situation is still unresolved and oil is still elevated, Warsh will have very little room to talk about cutting rates. His tone, his words, and his first press conference will define where mortgage rates go for the rest of 2026. (Wall Street Journal, Schwab)
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SpaceX IPO — expected June 12
SpaceX is expected to price its IPO around June 12 — targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation, the largest in history. Retail investors get in at IPO price — same as Wall Street. Whether you buy or not, this will move markets the week it prices. Keep an eye on it. (Fox Business, TheStreet)
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Jobs report — Friday, June 6
The May jobs report drops this Friday. April came in at 115K — nearly double expectations. May will tell us if that strength held. A strong number keeps recession talk quiet going into summer. A weak one — combined with today’s Iran escalation — changes the whole picture heading into Warsh’s first meeting.
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Bottom Line
Here’s what you need to know coming into this week: the market just had nine straight winning weeks and its best month of 2026. Dell and Snowflake both jumped 40% on AI demand. The Dow crossed 51,000. Gas prices were finally starting to fall. Everything was looking up.
Then this morning Iran announced it’s completely closing the Strait and walking away from talks. Oil jumped 8%. It is a reminder that this situation is not resolved. But here’s what the last three months have proven: the market can absorb this news. It has, every single week. The people who stayed the course are up 10% on the year. The people who bailed in February are not. Time in the market beats timing the market — every single time. Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered.
Stay steady. Stay disciplined. Keep your boots on the ground.
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Commentary and education only · No investment advice · No product recommendations
Sources: Reuters, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, TheStreet, Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Freddie Mac, BLS, AAA, Trading Economics, Brownfield Ag News, Schwab, The Mortgage Reports, Advisor Perspectives
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— Your TELEIOS Team
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