TELEIOS - Monday Market Commentary - June 8, 2026

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

— Benjamin Graham

Jobs crushed expectations. The market absolutely hated it. Here’s why that makes sense.

The May jobs report hit Friday morning: 172,000 jobs added — more than double the 80,000 Wall Street expected. Unemployment held at 4.3%. So why did stocks fall hard? Because a strong jobs report means the Fed has even less reason to cut rates. Bond investors pushed Treasury yields sharply higher. Higher yields mean higher borrowing costs for companies and lower stock valuations. The market didn’t see bad news Friday. It saw good news that makes the inflation fight harder. That’s a tough pill to swallow — but that’s the world we’re in right now. (BLS, Wall Street Journal, Edward Jones)

A tentative Iran deal is sitting on Trump’s desk. The most important unsigned document in the world right now.

Negotiators from the U.S. and Iran reached a tentative 60-day memorandum of understanding last week that would extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. The deal is awaiting President Trump’s signature. Iran says it’s not fully finalized on their end either. Here’s what happens if it gets signed: oil drops toward $70, gas prices fall 50–75 cents per gallon, inflation cools, the Fed gets room to cut rates, and mortgage rates follow. One signature could change the economic picture for every family in America. (The Hill, Reuters, CBS News)

Chip stocks had their worst week since 2025. The Nasdaq fell over 4% in a single day.

Friday was rough. The Nasdaq dropped 4.18% — its worst single day since April 2025. The chip sector fell nearly 9%. The S&P 500 dropped 2.64% and the nine-week winning streak ended. The catalyst: Broadcom disappointed on AI chip guidance Wednesday, which rattled the whole semiconductor sector. Then the blowout jobs report pushed Treasury yields higher, which hit tech stocks hardest. When you hold a stock priced for future growth, rising interest rates make that future growth worth less today. One bad Friday doesn’t change the year — but it stings. (TheStreet, Yahoo Finance, Edward Jones)

2026 Year-to-Date — How Far We’ve Come

Source: AP, Yahoo Finance — June 8, 2026 close

Worth Noting

The nine-week win streak is over — but keep it in perspective. The S&P 500 is still up 7.7% on the year. The Dow is still above 50,000. The Russell 2000 is still up 13.5%. The VIX — Wall Street’s fear gauge — jumped 39% on Friday to 21.51, which tells you investors are nervous. But nervous and broke are two very different things. (Yahoo Finance, Edward Jones)

30-Year Mortgage Rate — 12-Month Trend

Good news — rates ticked down this week as oil prices eased. Still well above the April low. (Freddie Mac)

Plain English

Good news for homebuyers this week — the 30-year mortgage dropped to 6.48%, down from 6.53% last week. The 15-year fell to 5.79% from 5.87%. Both are now below where they were a year ago. The drop happened because oil prices eased on ceasefire hopes, which cooled inflation fears and brought bond yields down. Freddie Mac’s chief economist noted pending home sales have risen for three straight months — buyers are coming back. But Friday’s jobs report pushed Treasury yields back up to 4.54%, so next week’s mortgage read could reverse this progress. (Freddie Mac June 4, 2026; CNBC Select)

Texas Fuel: Today vs. One Year Ago

Gray = year ago   ·   Colored = today

Plain English

The best pump news in months. Texas gas dropped to $3.69 today — down from $4.09 highs in early May. The national average is around $4.21. Filling a 15-gallon tank in Texas costs about $55 today versus $61 a month ago. That’s real money back in your pocket. Oil prices have pulled back from above $100 as ceasefire optimism has taken hold. If the Iran deal gets signed this week, prices could fall further. (AAA Texas, GasBuddy, June 8, 2026)

Plain English

Oil pulled back to the $87–93 range as ceasefire hopes held through most of the week — real relief for farmers and ranchers watching input costs. Gold dropped sharply on Friday, falling nearly $140, as the blowout jobs report made rate cuts less likely and investors rotated into bonds. Cattle prices are holding strong above $253 cash trade — good money for Texas ranchers. If the Iran MOU gets signed this week, expect oil to fall further and diesel costs to ease heading into summer. (Brownfield Ag News, Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics)

Q1 2026 Earnings Season — The Scoreboard

Source: Edward Jones, Zacks — based on S&P 500 companies reported through June 5, 2026

?? Gold & Silver

Gold dropped nearly $140 in a single day Friday, falling to around $4,365/oz. Silver sits around $76/oz. Here’s the plain English: the blowout jobs report made Fed rate cuts less likely. Higher rates make bonds more attractive than gold, which pays no interest. So investors rotated out of gold and into bonds yielding 4.54%. This is actually a healthy signal — it means the economy looks solid enough that people aren’t fleeing to safety. Gold is still up massively from January. We’re watching — not chasing. (Yahoo Finance, Barron’s, Trading Economics)

Trump’s signature on the Iran MOU — could come any day this week

A 60-day ceasefire extension and Strait of Hormuz reopening agreement is awaiting the President’s sign-off. One signature changes gas prices, inflation, mortgage rates, and the Fed’s options for the rest of 2026. Watch for any announcement. If it comes, markets move immediately. (The Hill, Reuters)

Warsh’s first FOMC meeting — Tuesday & Wednesday, June 16–17

Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed meeting next week. Updated economic projections, a new policy statement, and his first press conference as the most powerful banker in America. Whatever he signals on rates will move your mortgage rate for the rest of 2026. Pay attention. (Wall Street Journal, Schwab)

May CPI inflation report — Wednesday, June 11

The last major inflation read before Warsh’s meeting drops Wednesday morning. If May inflation came down, Warsh has more room to be patient. If it stayed hot, he has to hold firm. This number sets the tone for the FOMC meeting and for markets all week. (BLS)

SpaceX IPO — pricing this week, around June 12

SpaceX prices its IPO this week targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation — the largest in U.S. history. Retail investors get access at the same price as institutions. Whether you participate or not, this will move Nasdaq-listed stocks the day it prices. (Fox Business, TheStreet)